The Hype Cycle:
A technological horoscope?

The paradoxes of the hype cycle

What makes the hype cycle so charming - or absurd - is the fact that technologies that are closely interwoven technologically often follow completely different curves in the diagram. Take, for example Spatial Computing, Virtual Reality (VR) and the Metaverse. These three are so closely linked that they almost seem like siblings. Spatial computing forms the basis for VR experiences, and both are central components of the metaverse. It would therefore be logical for them to show similar trends on the hype cycle. But no! While spatial computing is proudly marching up the chart, VR is sliding straight into the valley of tears. The metaverse? Well, it's wavering somewhere in between, as if it doesn't even know whether it's still trendy or not.

Why the hype cycle does not reflect reality

This is the crux of the matter: The hype cycle has very little to do with technological realities. It does not measure progress, market maturity or actual use cases. What it measures is Hype - the ups and downs of public perception. You could say it is a kind of popularity barometer for tech trends, but by no means a tool for serious analysis.

Want an example? Spatial computing is hardly conceivable without VR. The two technologies are so intertwined that progress in one area inevitably influences the other. Despite this, public opinion - and therefore the hype cycle - seems to ignore this fact. While spatial computing is celebrated as the "new hot thing", VR is labeled as outdated. Why? Because it apparently sells better when you offer old wine in new bottles.

The true "experts" of the hype cycle

Who really uses the hype cycle?

And then there are the famous PowerPoint experts who pull the hype cycle out of the drawer at every opportunity. These "futurists" point to the graphic, nod knowingly and proclaim: "This is the future!" You often get the feeling that they could hardly explain the difference between AI and a fully automatic coffee machine. But hey, as long as the curve looks nice, nobody will ask, right?

Why we shouldn't take the hype cycle too seriously

At the end of the day, the hype cycle is nothing more than a conversation starter. It may help generate attention and spark discussion about new technologies, but it should never be used as a basis for decision-making. If you really want to understand how technologies like spatial computing, VR or the metaverse work and where they are heading, you need to dig deeper - far below the colorful surface of the hype cycle.

Conclusion

The hype cycle is like a horoscope for tech enthusiasts: entertaining, sometimes even inspiring, but rarely well-founded. And that's okay - as long as we're aware of it. So the next time someone holds this chart under your nose, nod your head, ask for concrete facts ... and enjoy the confusion in the speaker's eyes.

As the owner of an agency that specializes in Mixed reality, Virtual Reality, Augmented reality and topics such as the metaverse and spatial computing, this hype cycle shows me one thing above all: the public clearly has no idea what these terms mean and how they are connected. There is still an incredible amount of work to be done to educate people so that they understand the value of these technologies. They are not just buzzwords or colorful lines on some chart, but can provide real benefits - if used correctly. But until then, it remains our task to explain these relationships in a comprehensible way and to communicate the importance of these technologies.